Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that divided the nation and triggered disorder, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the political, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the absence of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Many are for or against the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or advocates are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author endorses unity or the status quo. Each writes two essays that strive for objectivity in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling economic and societal data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover national emblems, taxes, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters report they favour unification but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his generation is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will in the end lose but all factions has has something to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to join the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
